Day 2

Categorical Day 1 Outlook

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

000
ACUS01 KWNS 210533
SWODY1
SPC AC 210531

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 PM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible today from coastal into central
California, and across parts of southeast Texas. Severe weather is
unlikely.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A progressive upper trough with rapid cooling aloft will affect much
of the West Coast, with the strongest lift focused from central CA
into western OR and WA during the day. Moistening and lift combined
with cold temperatures aloft will result in scattered thunderstorms,
but weak instability and relatively cool surface temperatures should
only result in non-severe convection.

To the east, a weaker, low-latitude trough will move across TX,
providing lift. Boundary layer temperatures will remain cool and
stable, but weak warm advection above the surface layer will lead to
sufficient elevated instability for a few thunderstorms through the
period, mainly over southeastern TX.

..Jewell/Nauslar.. 11/21/2018

$$
        

Day 3

Day 4