Day 2

Categorical Day 1 Outlook

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

000
ACUS01 KWNS 191602
SWODY1
SPC AC 191601

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms, mainly with a threat for hail and damaging
winds, are possible across parts of the north-central Plains to
upper Mississippi Valley.

...Central Plains to Upper Mississippi Valley...
Morning water vapor loop shows an expansive upper ridge across the
central/southern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies
extending from WY into parts of NE/IA/IL.  Multiple rounds of
convection have resulted in a complex zone of surface boundaries
from CO to IA, which will aid in the initiation of storms later
today.  It appears likely that a few clusters of strong to
occasionally severe storms will intensify during the peak-heating
hours this afternoon and evening, with hail and locally damaging
wind gusts possible.  Sufficient deep-layer shear will promote a few
rotating cells, but the overall organization of the clusters will
likely be limited.  Thus will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk
designation.

..Hart/Coniglio.. 09/19/2018

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Day 3

Day 4